Top Prospect
Alert - Matt Peterson
DOB: 2/11/82, Age: 20, Height: 6’5’’, Weight:
185, Bats: R, Throws: R. Acquired: Mets - Drafted in the 2nd Round of the
2000 Draft (Rapides HS, Alexandria, LA). 2001 Stats: (Sseason-A -
Brooklyn) 2-2, 1.62 ERA, 33 IP, 26 H, 14 BB, 19 K; (Low-A - Columbia) 2-6,
4.99 ERA, 79 IP, 87 H, 29 BB, 72 K. 2002 Stats: (Low-A - Columbia) 8-10,
3.86 ERA, 138 IP, 109 H, 13 HR, 61 BB, 153 K, 9 WP; (High-A - St. Lucie)
1-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K.
Matt Peterson is a young
fireballer that the Mets picked up in the second round of the 2000 amateur
draft. The Mets started him out pretty quickly, bumping him up to the SAL
rather early in 2001. He struggled quite a bit there, so they kept him
down this year for much of the season, moving him up for just a one start
cameo in the FSL. Peterson is a big kid, standing 6’5’’ tall, and he
throws about as hard as you might expect. Coming out of high school, he
was throwing anywhere between 87-93 mph, but this year he was caught
between 92-97 mph, with some nice riding action to it. His curveball is
very sharp, but his command of it is still very inconsistent. To go along
with those two pitches, the Mets have had him working on a change, which
he threw less and less during the periods that he was successful. 10.1 K/9
versus 11.2 baserunners/9 is a very impressive statistic: one that will
vault him up many prospect lists this offseason. His stuff is outstanding,
but his control is still erratic. 4.2 BB/9 is certainly something that
will get him punished at higher levels. Other minor negatives include the
lack of a bonafide offspeed pitch, and the propensity to give up a few too
many homers for his caliber of pitches, but at age 20, he is progressing
nicely on the whole. It is an excellent sign that he is getting stronger
and stronger, and he was absolutely dominant at times this year. An injury
to his non-pitching arm (in ’99-’00) was the major reason that the Mets
were able to snag him after the first round of the 2000 draft, and that
gamble seems to be paying off nicely so far, as it does not seem to have
affected his mechanics at all.
The Mets are an
organization that has their work cut out for them, with a rather old core
of players and a fairly weak farm system. Matt Peterson has the look of a
player that could help them. With Leiter heading for age 38, and Astacio
and D’Amico looking a bit brittle, the Mets have a wide-open pitching
staff for the near future. Pat Strange and Aaron Heilman look like they
could contribute to the rotation of the future, but Peterson has a higher
ceiling than both. Granted, he is much further away, so 2003 should show
us quite a bit. If Peterson ends the year having had some success in AA, I
would say that he will be ready for a rotation slot in Shea by 2005. If
not, he may be yet another example of a thrower, not a pitcher. His
repertoire, both the positives and negatives, remind me of Russ Ortiz. He,
of course, has put together some control to go with the stuff, and has
become an outstanding pitcher. Matt Peterson has a chance to do the same
thing, but walking a batter every other inning is not going to cut it at
the higher levels. I do not see him as a mid-rotation starter. He will
either be a #1 or #2 (maybe 30% probability at this point), a closer
(20%), or a flameout (50%). Next year will go a long way toward
determining his career path, and he should start back at St. Lucie in the
FSL. Please keep in mind (before I get another flood of e-mails) that no
matter how good a player looks at the A level, there are a myriad of
things that can keep them from reaching the majors. I actually think that
saying that a player has a 50% chance at one of the premier jobs in a big
league rotation is being optimistic, so to sum up, I am optimistic for
Matt Peterson’s chances of a solid big league career.
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