Top Prospect
Alert - Dustin McGowan
DOB: 3/24/82, Age: 20, Height: 6’3’’, Weight:
190, Bats: R, Throws: R. Acquired: Blue Jays - Drafted in the 1st Round of
the 2000 Draft (Long County HS, Ludowici, GA). 2001 Stats: (Sseason-A -
Auburn) 3-6, 3.76 ERA, 67 IP, 57 H, 49 BB, 80 K. 2002 Stats: (Low-A -
Charleston WV) 11-10, 4.19 ERA, 148 IP, 143 H, 10 HR, 59 BB, 163 K, 12
WP.
Dustin McGowan is a
hard-throwing righty that was the second first round pick for the Blue
Jays in the 2000 amateur draft. Whatever his problems, McGowan throws
smoke. He can get his fastball up to 96 mph, and routinely throws in the
92-94 range. He also has a solid hard curveball, which he became much more
consistent in throwing for strikes this season. His changeup is still a
work in progress at this point, and he may need it to have a career
outside of the bullpen. Obviously, even with only the two main pitches,
McGowan has the stuff to succeed in some role. Any pitcher that strikes
out hitters at faster than a one per inning clip is a legitimate prospect,
and McGowan was right around 10 batters per nine, which is outstanding. He
has the ability to dominate a game, but has not put it to consistent use
just yet. His main problem is still control, although he did improve
immensely this year. He cut his walk rate from 6.5 per 9 in 2001 to about
3.7 this season, which is truthfully a gigantic step. The ten homers that
he allowed illustrate the difficulty that all pitchers have pitching
behind in the count, which McGowan still has a habit of doing on a
semi-regular basis. His ERA appears to belie his success a bit, so I am
curious to see what another full season will bring for Mr. McGowan.
Unfortunately, until he fine-tunes his control even further, he will be
destined to both tantalize and infuriate his coaches with alternatively
great and poor outings.
The Jays, with one of the
great young minds in the game in J.P. Ricciardi at the helm, are a
promising bunch. They have young, talented players at virtually every
position on the field (Phelps or Cash, Hudson, Lopez, Hinske, Cruz, Wells,
Gross), but they are still a bit lacking in the pitching department. Roy
Halladay looks like an ace, but the Jays really don’t have another
top-flight rotation prospect within three levels of the bigs. McGowan and
Brandon League might be next in line, which means that Dustin will likely
have a long leash with which to harness his control. He has a Russ
Ortiz-type profile, which of course will have quite a bit of standard
deviation while climbing the ladder. He could be an ace level pitcher, or
he could become Robbie Beckett. He should start at Dunedin (if the Jays
still have that affiliate, I haven’t checked) in 2003, and I think we’ll
see him with the Blue Jays in 2005, probably as the #2 or #3 man
eventually.
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