DOB: 7/31/79, Age: 22, Height: 6’3’’, Weight:
175, Bats: R, Throws: L. Acquired: Mariners - Drafted in the 3rd Round of
the 1998 Draft (Holland HS, MI); Traded to Tigers with Jerry Amador for
Brian Hunter on 6/26/99. 2000 Stats: (Low-A - West Michigan) 16-6, 2.45
ERA, 158 IP, 139 H, 37 BB, 126 K. 2001 Stats: (High-A - Lakeland) 10-4,
3.17 ERA, 111 IP, 105 H, 8 HR, 33 BB, 82 K, (AA - Erie) 5-0, 4.69 ERA, 48
IP, 63 H, 8 BB, 29 K.
Andy VanHekken is a finesse
lefty that was acquired in the 1999 Brian Hunter deal by the Tigers. Since
the “addition by subtraction” of ridding themselves of Hunter was
accomplishment enough, the Tigers can’t be faulted for feeling that they
fleeced the Mariners in this deal. VanHekken has been slowly progressing
through the Tigers’ system since the deal: exhibiting good control, an
ability to keep the ball down, and a winning record at every stop. Andy is
a true “crafty lefty”, with a fastball that might not break glass, topping
out in the mid-to-high 80’s. He has a good curve and changeup, as you
might expect, and is extremely adept at changing speeds and planes. He
keeps hitters off-balance, often inducing them to expand their strike
zones, and generally seems to be in control on the mound. The downside for
VanHekken is similar to that of most soft-tossers: he is very hittable.
His brief trial at Erie highlighted this fact, as Andy allowed 11.8 H/9 in
48 IP there, but he was still able to post a 5-0 record. His W/L record is
partly due to luck, but it’s also partly due to “Tommy John syndrome.”
Tommy John, as he slowly aged, became much more hittable. Pitchers who
allow 11 or 12 H/9 don’t usually just struggle, they implode. John, and
some pitchers like him, were able to maintain varying degrees of success
by becoming preposterously stingy with free passes. VanHekken allowed only
1.5 BB/9 at Erie, and only around 2.5 per 9 last year on the whole, which
is the range he’ll need to remain in if he is going to progress further
(unless he miraculously discovers a few extra mph on his fastball). His
statlines will bear close scrutiny this year, because pitchers of his type
walk a very fine line between reasonable success and spectacular failure.
There are not many pitchers in
today’s game that can be successful with VanHekken’s level of stuff. That
type of pitcher, upon promotion to the higher levels, usually either
continues to throw a lot of strikes, allowing a large number of homers as
he moves closer to the majors, or he becomes a nibbler, and settles into
AAA mediocrity. It’s unlikely, even with the friendly confines of Comerica
National Park beckoning, that VanHekken can become more than a replacement
level major-league pitcher. The Tigers will likely let him pitch at least
the first half of the year in Erie again, with a decent chance of a
promotion to Toledo during the year if he is successful. As I stated
previously, a pitcher like Andy needs to be perfect to have a chance at
the top levels, and most pitchers can’t be perfect very often. His best
comparison is a late-career Tommy John, and VanHekken doesn’t have John’s
reputation to carry him along. His peak would be as a #4 or #5 starter in
Detroit, but I doubt he’ll ever have much of a major-league
career.
