Top Prospect
Alert - Travis Blackley
DOB: 11/4/82, Age: 20, Height: 6’3’’, Weight:
190, Bats: L, Throws: L. Acquired: Mariners - Signed out of Cheltenham
Secondary HS (Australia) in 2000. 2002 Stats: (High-A - San Bernardino)
5-9, 3.49 ERA, 121 IP, 102 H, 11 HR, 44 BB, 152 K. 2003 Stats: (AA - San
Antonio) 6-2, 2.18 ERA, 58 IP, 37 H, 2 HR, RHRH30 BB, 48 K.
Travis Blackley is one of a fair
number of high-quality Mariner “imports” from Australia over the past
several seasons. Along with Chris Snelling and Craig Anderson, Blackley
represents the benefits of the foray the Mariners have made down under.
Blackley, a late bloomer who didn’t represent his state’s under-18 team
until his last year of eligibility, is a projectable lefty that has
dominated every level he has played at despite being much younger than
average at his past few stops. He is “projectable” in that he is 6’3’’ and
190, leaving some room on his frame for some bulk (and thus added
velocity). He already throws in the high 80’s, which is above average for
a 20 year old lefty. His curveball is fantastic by all accounts, and his
changeup is also a plus pitch, although less consistent than his two
primary offerings. His command is going to be his major stumbling block,
if there is one. It’s quite clear that hitters more advanced in age than
he (on average) are not able to hit him with any consistency. His H/9 and
HR/9 rates are fantastic, even without considering the age discrepancy.
Giving up the amount of free passes that he does has not hurt him yet, but
it certainly will at some point. He’s walking over 4.5 per nine this
season, which is up from 3.3 last year. A walk every two innings will be
too much to overcome against good lineups, so that will be one area that
needs to improve before the M’s come calling. San Antonio was also the
third most favorable pitchers’ park in the minors last season, and
Blackley’s BA against on balls in play is extremely low, so some of his
numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt (the small sample size
caveat might apply). Nit picking aside, Blackley is 20 years old and
dominating AA hitters, which would be a fantastic sign if his home park
were in Death Valley. He’s going to have a big league career.
I was surprised when I
reviewed the Mariners’ major league roster. They have the best record in
baseball right now, but I’m not sure they have a player that jumps out at
you as being one of the best few players at their position (except Edgar,
who might be the first player in history to qualify for a courtesy
runner). Not only that, but their “ace” has been horrific for almost a
year now, and they only have one player in their starting lineup that is
still on the upside of the development curve. (Ben Davis) Their minor
league system isn’t loaded, but there is clearly some help on the way.
Jamie Moyer can’t possibly hang on for much longer, (can he?) and Rafael
Soriano is definitely ready to step into that spot. Joel Piniero and Gil
Meche are young and pitching very well, and Garcia will just turn 27 next
week. That’s four spots that seem to be nailed down, and Ryan Franklin is
no pushover for the fifth spot, although he doesn’t strike out enough
batters to maintain his current successes. Basically, there isn’t a lot of
room for the pitching prospects, and San Antonio has a well-stocked
rotation featuring Clint Nageotte, Rett Johnson, and Matt Thornton in
addition to Travis Blackley. One possible outcome is that Garcia will end
up elsewhere, and Franklin will sop up some innings (or they’ll commit to
Soriano sooner) until Nageotte and Blackley, the best two of the bunch at
AA, are ready. With Shin-Soo Choo and Chris Snelling hanging around on the
hitting side of things, the old Mariners have a decent amount of youth at
their disposal once it becomes necessary to make some changes. As for
Blackley, he will probably struggle a bit more as he harnesses his control
at AA, but he is on pace to reach Seattle by age 22 at the latest. It is
extremely rare to see a pitcher exhibit this type of success at Blackley’s
age, but as we all know, there are no perfect indicators. Case in point:
one of Blackley’s better comparables is Sterling Hitchcock, a pitcher for
whom it never quite came together. That kind of a career is probably the
downside for Blackley (with the inevitable injury caveat once again), much
as it was for Hitchcock, which I suppose lends some comfort to those
rooting for him. His upside is fantastic. I would look for his first big
league start sometime next summer, when the M’s need someone for a run of
the mill midsummer game, unless by some chance they clinch the division
with some time remaining this year and give him a shot in September.
|