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TopProspectAlert.com Minor League News & Autograph Blog HomeTop Prospect Alert - Jason Stokes By Schuyler DombroskeDOB: 1/23/82, Age: 20, Bats/Throws: R/R,
Height: 6’4’’, Weight: 225. Acquired: Marlins - Drafted in the 2nd Round
of the 2000 Draft (Coppell HS, TX). 2001 Stats: (SSeason-A - Utica) .231
AVG, 130 AB, 2 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 0 SB, 11 BB, 48 K, .299 OBP, .400 SLG. 2002
Stats: (Low-A - Kane County) .361 AVG, 155 AB, 11 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 1 SB,
15 BB, 47 K, .408 OBP, .645 SLG.
Jason Stokes is part of a
logjam that the Marlins have at first base in their organization. Stokes,
a Texas high-school product, slipped to the second round of the 2000 draft
despite clearly having first-round talent, and the Marlins snapped him up
and shocked everyone by signing him before the deadline. Stokes has an
extremely quick, vicious uppercut swing to go with his natural power
hitters’ build. He hit rather poorly in his first partial season at Utica,
but has come on this year to post the kinds of numbers that the Marlins
expected for their two million dollar signing bonus. Power is his primary
tool, and with 17 homers in his first 285 professional at-bats, he has
already shown it. When he connects, a hard hit ball is the result, so
expect a continuation of the double/homer combination that Stokes has been
able to post thus far. He is hitting for a tremendous average in the early
going this season, but I don’t expect him to be a quality hitter for
average in the long run, as his swing is just too violent. Once the
hitting tools are discussed, Stokes does not bring much else to the table.
His speed is poor (and he’s only 20), his arm is below average, and his
range and hands are also subpar. The combination of these traits resulted
in the end of a brief experiment in left field for Stokes, and it is clear
that his future will lie at first base. His strike-zone judgment was
expected to be an attribute before he signed, but it has been very poor so
far. He is striking out exactly once every three at-bats right now, and
until that number improves, I cannot see him progressing very much as a
hitter, nor maintaining that lofty batting average.
First base is a position
of strength for the Marlins. Derrek Lee is an adequate major league
starter right now, and is still young enough to become more than that.
Adrian Gonzalez is a step below the top few first base prospects (Pena and
Johnson), but is still likely a top 30 prospect. Stokes, of course, is
also a decent prospect, but is in need of a change of scenery.
(Pittsburgh, anyone?) The Marlins are poised for a long run of contention
if they can get an ownership group that is willing to put forth some
effort, so expect Derrek Lee to either break out in the next year or two
or be dealt. If the Marlins are serious, he will be packaged with other
extras for something they need to finish off the team (a SS or another OF
or SP). If they aren’t, he’ll be dealt for prospects and the cycle will
begin anew. Gonzalez is struggling this season, but would have to do much
worse to be passed by Stokes, which doesn’t leave Jason with too many
options. I don’t think he has a very good chance of making the majors in
the Florida organization, and probably a bit less than a 50/50 chance of
making it at all unless he happens upon the right situation. His hitting
tools are actually similar to Derrek Lee’s, but Lee is a much better
defender and has more speed to boot. Put simply, better players than
Stokes have been mired in unfavorable situations, ruining potential
careers. Why expect his lot in life to be different? He could become Kevin
Millar somewhere down the road, which isn’t all
bad.
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