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TopProspectAlert.com Minor League News & Autograph Blog HomeTop Prospect Alert - Jason Dubois By Schuyler DombroskeDOB: 3/26/79, Age: 24, Height: 6’5’’, Weight:
225, Bats: R, Throws: R. Acquired: Cubs - Drafted in the 14th Round of the
2000 Draft (VCU); selected in Rule V draft 12/02 by Blue Jays but returned
to Cubs. 2002 Stats: (High-A - Daytona) .321 AVG, 361 AB, 25 2B, 1 3B, 20
HR, 6 SB, 57 BB, 95 K, .422 OBP, .562 SLG. 2003 Stats: (AA - West
Tennessee) .286 AVG, 255 AB, 18 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 2 SB, 42 BB, 80 K, .403
OBP, .471 SLG.
Ten bucks says that Jason
Dubois can currently outhit at least one starting outfielder (barring
trades) for the Cubs every day for the rest of the season. Since Troy
O’Leary and Tom Goodwin are going to be splitting the third outfielder
spot with Corey Patterson out, that’s probably a sucker bet. Jason Dubois
can hit, and I’m not sure the Cubs realize it, since he is only in the
Cubs system because the Blue Jays inexplicably couldn’t find a spot for
him after picking him up in the winter Rule V draft. Let’s start with the
negatives. Dubois has no position that he can play well enough to be an
adequate defender. He has played left field, right field, and first base
so far in his minor league career, and it appears that the corner outfield
spots will be what he calls home going forward. Dubois has a good arm, but
with his size just isn’t quite mobile enough to be a good defensive
outfielder. On the bases, Dubois isn’t really a base clogger, but don’t
expect double-digit steals. His speed would best be categorized as below
average. His bat is what will carry him, enough so that his shortcomings
should be able to be overlooked. Dubois has all three hitting tools: the
ability to hit for average, power, and plate discipline. Dubois has hit
.296, .321, and .286 in his three seasons, despite some tremendously high
strikeout rates. I wouldn’t expect him to contend for a batting title, but
he should be able to hit at a league average or better. For the first two
years of his pro career, Dubois hit homers at a rate of roughly one every
eighteen at-bats. This season, that rate has dropped significantly (28.3),
but that is most likely due to a wrist injury that he suffered last
season. As we all have witnessed many times now, wrist injuries stick
around for a long time, and they sap power more than any other attribute.
Dubois is capable of hitting 20-30 homers playing every day, and should
resume his exhibition of that skill next season. His plate discipline has
improved this season from an already adequate level: sort of. He has been
patient to a fault this season, walking roughly once every seven plate
appearances, but striking out twice that amount. He will need to cut that
down to continue progressing through the system. One more potential
negative with Dubois: the injury bug. A stress fracture in his foot
delayed his debut until 2001, and then the wrist injury last year cost him
nearly half of the season, and is clearly affecting him still. He is a big
kid, and not too many guys his size stay healthy consistently. He still is
more than good enough for me to wonder why the Blue Jays and the Cubs
didn’t seem to know what they have (had) in him.
The one major problem that
I see with Dubois is not the injuries, it’s not the build, and it
certainly isn’t the defense. The problem is his age. Dubois is three years
removed from the draft as a former college player, and he is still only in
AA. With the wrist injury, it isn’t likely that he would break into the
majors until he is 25, and the track record for players that break in that
late is less than stellar. However, the fact remains that, should Moises
Alou leave Chicago after 2004, Jason Dubois would likely be the best
in-house replacement. He certainly seems to be the kind of player that the
A’s covet, (I really don’t want to say “take and rake”, but there it is)
and with their injuries, some trade possibilities might exist there as
well. All in all, I expect Dubois to have a solid career, probably picking
up over 1000 at-bats in the process. I like him better than Nic Jackson,
and probably better than Jackson Melian as well. The Cubs have enough
pitching that they could probably withstand an average corner outfielder,
if that’s all Dubois turns out to be, although I hold out hope that he can
be a bit better than that. I expect him to scuffle through this year with
a good OBP but lower SLG than normal, and then to play well at Iowa early
next year, get called up to pick up a few at-bats late next season, and
then to contend for the starting job in LF for 2005. Yes, he’ll be 26, and
probably will only have a few good years, but he’ll be able to save them
some money that they can use elsewhere (how about SS or C?). Dubois
reminds me of someone like Kevin Millar, (or even an opposite handed,
older version of Adam Dunn) in that his value is almost entirely with his
bat, and a smart organization will find a place for that to work.
Unfortunately, as nicely as the Cubs have stacked up some useful players
in their organization, they are still the same team that starts
Grudzielanek, Goodwin or O’Leary, and Ramon Martinez more often than they
don’t, and that doesn’t count the catchers’ position. I am not as
optimistic about Dubois’ chances as I would have been in Toronto, but he
still should find a way to get playing time, one way or
another.
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