Top Prospect
Alert - Grady Sizemore
DOB: 8/2/82, Age: 19, Bats/Throws: L/L,
Height: 6’2’’, Weight: 195. Acquired: Expos - Drafted in 3rd Round of 2000
Draft (Cascade HS, Cascade, WA). 2001 Stats: (Low-A - Clinton) .268 AVG,
451 AB, 16 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 32 SB, 81 BB, 92 K, .380 OBP, .335 SLG. 2002
Stats: (High-A - Brevard County) .278 AVG, 90 AB, 6 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 4 SB,
13 BB, 15 K, .375 OBP, .367 SLG.
Grady Sizemore is the
proud owner of the second largest signing bonus ever doled out to a
Montreal Expos’ draft pick. The money that he received was basically a
buyout of his U. of Washington football scholarship, giving Sizemore an
extra two million reasons to choose baseball as his permanent occupation.
Now nearly two full years removed from the draft, some aspects of
Sizemore’s game are still raw. Although he has excellent speed, he does
not look like a natural center fielder. He is not as fluid as you would
expect from an athlete of his caliber cutting into the gaps, but on plays
straight over his head or straight in he is very solid. His arm strength
is rather poor, so I could see him being moved to left field going
forward, although I think the Expos would exhaust every other option prior
to that. Offensively, his best attributes are his plate discipline and his
speed. Most 18 year olds do not draw anywhere near 81 walks. Granted,
Grady also struck out 92 times, but when you take a lot of pitches,
sometimes you end up in pitchers’ counts, and Grady doesn’t have the best
bat speed. He recognizes pitches extremely well: he just can’t seem to
catch up to everything quite yet. His power numbers are nearly
non-existent right now, and although scouts say that he has above-average
power potential, I don’t think many 30 home run hitters started out their
careers with 3 homers in their first 750 ABs. Possibly a few were able to
develop their power from nothing, but not many. I don’t think that
Sizemore will ever hit for more than average power, not unless his bat
speed improves a reasonable amount. On the basepaths, Sizemore has the
ability to be one of the top five basestealers in any league. That fact,
combined with his uncanny plate discipline, makes him a much better future
leadoff candidate for Montreal/DC than Peter Bergeron.
I write my prediction for
Sizemore’s career with the Expos with complete knowledge that, because of
a certain used car salesman’s chicanery and deception, Grady Sizemore’s
Montreal career may very well cease in the FSL. With that despicable
situation duly noted….the Expos are obviously less than pleased with the
development of Peter Bergeron. Interestingly enough, Sizemore has very
similar skills, and has to be in the organization’s long-term plans due to
the aforementioned signing bonus. Fortunately for Bergeron, Sizemore is at
least 3 years away, which will be plenty of time for him to sink or swim
on his own. The Expos have been known to compare Sizemore to a young Jim
Edmonds. In my opinion, his actual value will lie somewhere between that
of Bergeron and Kenny Lofton. At the Lofton end, it is a great investment
for a franchise that is unable/afraid to spend money. At the bottom end,
it would be $2 million down the drain. Personally, I think that the Expos
will move to Washington after some sort of agreement is worked out with
Peter Angelos, and things will move forward (from a farm system
standpoint) as normally as is possible. From Sizemore’s standpoint, that
probably means the rest of this year will be spent in Florida, with a
promotion to AA likely occurring by next spring. If he continues to
progress, his “Washington” ETA would be late 2004. Unless a better
prospect comes along, Sizemore will probably get a chance to start in CF
at that time, but I do expect him to end up closer to Bergeron’s career
than Lofton’s.
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